Work package 3
WP3: Analysis of Water Basin Resilience to Climate Change
The concept of resilience (the ability of a system to absorb disturbances and adapt) is key to facing climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme events. Although the concept is robust, it often lacks practical application, being "conceptually strong but operationally weak". This work package seeks to identify and analyze the economic, environmental, social, and participatory factors that support or hinder the resilience of water basins in Chile. The objective is to understand how polycentric governance can better prepare communities for the water-related risks they face
WP 3.1: Proposal of Indicators to Assess Resilience
The first stage focuses on developing a set of indicators to measure the different dimensions of resilience in the four basins under study. To do this, a detailed characterization of each basin will first be carried out, examining its demographic, climatic, economic, and hydrological aspects.
Then, a set of indicators will be proposed under the SMART framework (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-bound) to ensure their quality and relevance. Finally, a resilience assessment survey will be conducted with a panel of experts from various disciplines, and the results will be statistically analyzed.
WP 3.2: Towards a Holistic Assessment of Resilience
A simple list of indicators does not offer a comprehensive view. To overcome this limitation, the second stage consists of aggregating the individual indicators into a composite indicator, or synthetic index, which allows for a multidimensional assessment of resilience.
To ensure more reliable results, two advanced methodological approaches will be used: the Distance-Principal Component (DPC), a statistical method that reduces subjectivity, and the Goal Programming Synthetic Indicator (GPSI), a non-statistical technique.
The application of these indices will allow for the comparison of resilience among the different basins, the identification of their main strengths and weaknesses, and thus the promotion of policies to enhance it.